FERC Rejected PJM's Large Load Plan
On October 9, 2026, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected the core of PJM's plan for connecting data centers and other large loads, keeping only a 50 MW large load definition and a new large load registry. The decision removes the "connect now, curtail first" fast lane that many developers were counting on, and hands the hardest question (which customers get curtailed when the grid is stressed) back to the states. For anyone siting a data center in PJM, it makes one thing clearer than ever: the grid capacity already sitting at a specific substation is now worth more than any interim connection promise.
What did FERC decide on PJM's large load plan?
PJM filed its proposal in docket ER26-3515-000 on August 13, 2026, asking for an October 12 effective date, according to MGRID's summary of the order. The centerpiece was an Interim Resource Adequacy Service (IRAS). New large loads entering service after June 1, 2027 could have connected before matching new generation existed, as long as they agreed to be curtailed ahead of other customers during grid emergencies. A companion "bring your own new capacity" option would have let loads skip that queue by supplying their own generation.
FERC split the filing in two:
Accepted: PJM's definition of a large load (50 MW or more at a single site) and a large load registry that tracks each facility's location, ramp schedule, and capacity supply.
Rejected: IRAS, the bring-your-own-capacity rules, and the related tariff provisions. FERC found that several provisions would place obligations directly on retail customers, decide which retail customers get curtailed, and effectively set a retail rate, all of which sit under state jurisdiction. It also said the framework appeared discriminatory toward large loads.
In a concurring statement, Commissioner David Rosner warned that leaving IRAS loads out of the capacity auction's demand curve could signal a surplus while the region was actually shedding thousands of megawatts of demand, and said curtailment should only come after voluntary demand response is exhausted. PJM spokesman Jeffrey Shields said the grid operator is reviewing the order "with an eye toward how we can fulfill FERC's requirements." Utility Dive notes the ruling landed about five weeks after FERC also rejected key elements of PJM's backstop capacity procurement.
Why does this ruling matter for PJM capacity prices?
IRAS was PJM's attempt to keep new data center load from colliding with a capacity market that is already short. The numbers show how tight it has become. In July, PJM's 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction cleared at the $325/MW-day price cap and procured 138,318 MW, finishing 6,831 MW short of its reliability requirement. The prior auction was about 6,500 MW short, and PJM says these were the first two auctions in its history in which the entire footprint fell short. Only 525 MW of new generation and uprates cleared.
Capacity cleared at just $28.92/MW-day for the 2024/2025 delivery year. It then jumped to a record $269.92 for 2025/2026 and has cleared at or near the negotiated cap ever since ($329.17 for 2026/2027 and $333.44 for 2027/2028). In February, PJM filed to extend that price collar (a cap of about $325/MW-day and a floor of about $175/MW-day) through the 2029/2030 delivery year. With IRAS off the table, Jefferies analysts told Utility Dive the ruling could mean higher capacity prices for longer in PJM. As a rough illustration, 300 MW of capacity priced at $325/MW-day works out to about $35.6 million a year, before a single kilowatt-hour of energy is billed.
What does this mean for data center developers in PJM?
Three practical shifts follow from the order.
There is no interim fast lane, at least for now. A project that planned to connect under IRAS and accept curtailment risk needs a new path. Any revival will likely come through a new filing or through state action, and Jefferies flagged Ohio and Pennsylvania as the states to watch.
State policy is now part of site selection. FERC explicitly urged states to decide which retail customers must be curtailed during system stress. Two sites with identical grid access could carry very different curtailment exposure depending on which state commission writes those rules, and how fast.
Visibility is coming, so plan for it. The approved registry means PJM will track every 50 MW+ load's location and ramp schedule. Projects that cannot show a credible power path, whether through grid headroom or on-site supply, will be easy to spot.
The common thread is location. When the market cannot add capacity fast enough and the interim workaround is gone, the sites that move forward are the ones where the grid already has room to serve new load. That's measurable, substation by substation, with offtake capacity data. (If you need a refresher on the difference between offtake and transfer capacity, see our guide to available transfer capacity vs. offtake capacity.)
Where is there grid headroom for large loads in Ohio and Pennsylvania?
Since Ohio and Pennsylvania are likely to shape what comes next, we ran both states through LandGate's substation offtake model, which estimates how much new load each substation can serve under PJM's planning cases. A clear pattern emerged: many of the highest modeled offtake values sit at substations that serve large existing or former power plants, where high-voltage infrastructure was built to move gigawatts of power.
Substation | County, state | Modeled offtake (MW) | Site context |
Juniper | Cuyahoga, OH | 1,990 | Transmission substation in the Cleveland area; Ohio's top modeled value |
Cabot | Butler, PA | 1,980 | Transmission substation north of Pittsburgh; Pennsylvania's top modeled value |
Homer City | Indiana, PA | 1,970 | Former coal plant; 345 kV, 9 connected lines; ~4.5 GW gas-fired data center campus under construction |
Carroll County Energy | Carroll, OH | 1,970 | Serves a gas-fired generating plant |
Three Mile Island | Dauphin, PA | 1,940 | Crane Clean Energy Center nuclear restart for Microsoft |
Davis-Besse | Ottawa, OH | 1,910 | Nuclear plant site |
Perry | Lake, OH | 1,880 | Nuclear plant site |
Brunner Island | York, PA | 1,860 | Existing power plant site |
LandGate modeled offtake capacity (ERIS), PJM planning case, rounded to the nearest 10 MW. Modeled values are screening estimates, not interconnection guarantees, and should be confirmed through PJM's study process.
Two of these sites show how the story plays out on the ground. At Homer City, a former coal plant is being redeveloped into a roughly 4.5 GW gas-fired AI and data center campus that reached first steel in April 2026. LandGate's queue data shows how crowded and volatile that part of the grid has been: of the 233 interconnection requests LandGate links to the Homer City area, 181 (78%) have been withdrawn. Another 1,466 MW of new projects are now queued on the Homer City to Mainesburg 345 kV corridor alone, including a 641 MW combined cycle plant that entered the queue on July 31, 2026 with a 2031 target date.
At Three Mile Island, Constellation is restarting the former Unit 1 reactor as the Crane Clean Energy Center to supply Microsoft, with energy delivery targeted for the second half of 2027. Even so, Constellation has acknowledged that full deliverability of its capacity injection rights is tied to PJM's interconnection process, with a 2031 date attached. That is the lesson of this ruling in miniature: headroom at the substation is necessary, but timing through PJM still decides when power actually flows.
How can developers use LandGate data to respond?
LandGate's data center platform brings the inputs this ruling makes urgent into one place: modeled offtake capacity at substations across the country, PJM interconnection queue history and withdrawal rates, nearby generation, nodal power pricing, and parcel-level land and ownership data. Our developer's guide to LandGate's data center due diligence data walks through how teams screen sites with it, and our power vocabulary guide covers the terms that come up in every one of these conversations.
Frequently asked questions
What is PJM's IRAS proposal?
IRAS, or Interim Resource Adequacy Service, was PJM's proposal to let new large loads (such as data centers) entering service after June 1, 2027 connect before enough new generation existed to serve them, in exchange for being curtailed ahead of other customers during grid emergencies. FERC rejected it on October 9, 2026.
What part of PJM's large load plan did FERC approve?
FERC accepted PJM's definition of a large load as 50 MW or more at a single site, and a large load registry that tracks each facility's location, ramp schedule, and capacity supply.
Why did FERC reject IRAS?
FERC found that several IRAS provisions would place obligations directly on retail customers, choose which retail customers are curtailed, and effectively set a retail rate. Those decisions belong to the states. FERC also said the framework appeared discriminatory toward large loads.
Will PJM capacity prices stay high?
Analysts at Jefferies said the ruling could mean higher capacity prices for longer in PJM. The last three auctions cleared at or near the price cap, and the 2028/2029 auction cleared at $325/MW-day while finishing 6,831 MW short of the reliability requirement.
Which states should data center developers watch next?
FERC urged states to decide which retail customers are curtailed during system stress. Analysts have flagged Ohio and Pennsylvania as the states most likely to lead any revival of the curtail-first approach.
How can I check grid capacity at a specific substation?
LandGate models offtake capacity (how much new load a substation can likely serve) at substations nationwide, alongside interconnection queue history, nearby generation, and nodal pricing. These screening estimates help narrow a search before committing to PJM's formal study process.
Want to see where there's room for new load in PJM? Book a demo with LandGate to explore substation offtake capacity, queue history, and parcels near the sites that matter to your project.
